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Last Updated: February 7, 2018

Match the Dealer

Introduction

Match the Dealer is a side bet found in blackjack, Spanish 21, and Down Under Blackjack. It wins if either of the player's initial two cards match the dealer's up card in rank. Wins are more if both match and for suited matches.

Rules

 

Match the Dealer can be added to any conventional blackjack or blackjack variant. It pays if either of the player's initial two cards match the dealer's up card in rank. A match in suit and rank pays more. The following two pay tables show the known pay tables available according to the number of decks. The first table is for blackjack or any blackjack variant using full 52-card decks. The second is for Spanish 21, which uses a depleted 48-card deck with no tens. All pays are on a "to one" basis.

Blackjack Pay Table

Decks Unsuited Match Suited Match
2 4 19
4 4 12
5 3 15
6 4 11
8 3 14

Spanish 21 Pay Table

Decks Unsuited Match Suited Match
6 4 9
8 3 12

Blackjack Analysis

 

The following table shows my analysis in two-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 4 to 1 and a suited match pays 19 to 1.

4/19 Two-Deck Blackjack Analysis

Event Pays Permutations Probability Return
Two suited matches 38 - 0.000000 0.000000
One suited and one non-suited match 23 6 0.001142 0.026271
One suited match 19 96 0.018275 0.347230
Two non-suited matches 8 15 0.002856 0.022844
One non-suited match 4 576 0.109652 0.438607
No matches -1 4,560 0.868075 -0.868075
Total 5,253 1.000000 -0.033124

The following table shows my analysis in four-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 4 to 1 and a suited match pays 12 to 1.

4/12 Four-Deck Blackjack Analysis

Event Pays Permutations Probability Return
Two suited matches 24 3 0.000141 0.003377
One suited and one non-suited match 16 36 0.001688 0.027016
One suited match 12 576 0.027016 0.324187
Two non-suited matches 8 66 0.003096 0.024764
One non-suited match 4 2,304 0.108062 0.432250
No matches -1 18,336 0.859997 -0.859997
Total 21,321 1.000000 -0.048403

The following table shows my analysis in five-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 3 to 1 and a suited match pays 15 to 1.

3/15 Five-Deck Blackjack Analysis

Event Pays Permutations Probability Return
Two suited matches 30 6 0.000180 0.005387
One suited and one non-suited match 18 60 0.001796 0.032325
One suited match 15 960 0.028733 0.430996
Two non-suited matches 6 105 0.003143 0.018856
One non-suited match 3 3,600 0.107749 0.323247
No matches -1 28,680 0.858400 -0.858400
Total 33,411 1.000000 -0.047589

The following table shows my analysis in six-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 4 to 1 and a suited match pays 11 to 1.

4/11 Six-Deck Blackjack Analysis

Event Pays Permutations Probability Return
Two suited matches 22 10 0.000207 0.004564
One suited and one non-suited match 15 90 0.001867 0.028005
One suited match 11 1,440 0.029872 0.328597
Two non-suited matches 8 153 0.003174 0.025392
One non-suited match 4 5,184 0.107541 0.430163
No matches -1 41,328 0.857338 -0.857338
Total 48,205 1.000000 -0.040618

The following table shows my analysis in eight-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 3 to 1 and a suited match pays 14 to 1.

3/14 Eight-Deck Blackjack Analysis

Event Pays Permutations Probability Return
Two suited matches 28 21 0.000244 0.006845
One suited and one non-suited match 17 168 0.001956 0.033246
One suited match 14 2,688 0.031290 0.438065
Two non-suited matches 6 276 0.003213 0.019277
One non-suited match 3 9,216 0.107281 0.321844
No matches -1 73,536 0.856015 -0.856015
Total 85,905 1.000000 -0.036738

Spanish 21 Analysis

 

The following table shows my analysis in eight-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 3 to 1 and a suited match pays 14 to 1.

4/9 Six-Deck Spanish 21 Analysis

Event Pays Permutations Probability Return
Two suited matches 18 10 0.000244 0.004386
One suited and one non-suited match 13 90 0.002193 0.028508
One suited match 9 1,320 0.032163 0.289467
Two non-suited matches 8 153 0.003728 0.029824
One non-suited match 4 4,752 0.115787 0.463147
No matches -1 34,716 0.845886 -0.845886
Total 41,041 1.000000 -0.030555

The following table shows my analysis in eight-deck blackjack when an unsuited match pays 3 to 1 and a suited match pays 12 to 1.

3/12 Eight-Deck Spanish 21 Analysis

Event Pays Permutations Probability Return
Two suited matches 24 21 0.000287 0.006890
One suited and one non-suited match 15 168 0.002297 0.034448
One suited match 12 2,464 0.033683 0.404194
Two non-suited matches 6 276 0.003773 0.022637
One non-suited match 3 8,448 0.115484 0.346452
No matches -1 61,776 0.844477 -0.844477
Total 73,153 1.000000 -0.029855
  • from the Washington state Gaming Commission for Match the Dealer.
  • in my forum at Wizard of Vegas.

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