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MoreLess is a simple game in which the player predicts whether a random number from 1 to 100 will be less, equal, or greater than the previous number chosen. Odds are commensurate with the probability of winning.
- The game draws a random number from 1 to 100.
- The player may bet on whether the next random number draw, on the same basis, will be higher, lower, or equal to the last number drawn.
- A new random number from 1 to 100 will be drawn.
- If the player wins, then he is paid at odds equal to 0.96 divided by the probability of winning. These odds will be rounded down to the nearest 0.01.
- Return to step 2
The expected return in his game generally ranges from 95% to 96%. While the winning odds are calculated to achieve an expected return of 96%, sometimes rounding down causes the actual return to be a little less.
For example, consider the following situation where the last number drawn was 17.
You can see the return for the Equal and Over bets equal exactly 96%. However, to achieve an expected return of 96%, the Over bet would have to pay 96%/83% = 1.1566 for 1. This gets rounded down to 1.15. The return then becomes 83% × 1.15 = 95.45%.
Written by: Michael Shackleford