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Last Updated: January 21, 2019
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Teaser bets in the NFL
Introduction
Disclaimer
The analysis on this page is based on the 4450 NFL games between the 1994 to 2012 seasons. I started with 1994 because that was the year the twopoint conversion rule was introduced. Besides sample size variation, I also had to make assumptions about how point spreads were created on teaser cards. To save time, rather than analyzing all 12 known types of parlay cards, I analyzed five types. To get an understanding of how extra points affect the probability of winning, I created my Wizard Teaser Equation.
The reader should assume there is some margin of error on any statistic on the probability of winning and expected return anywhere on this page. At the end of the day, sports are ultimately played by human beings, not statistics, so always take any predictions of future results, based on past results, with a grain of salt.
Off the Board Teasers
"Off the Board" (OTB) teasers are based on the current point spreads off the betting board at the time of the bet. No card is filled out. Instead, the bettor tells the writer the number of legs in the teaser, number of additional points on each leg, the bet numbers he wishes to parlay, and the amount of the bet. For example, the bettor might say, "Threeteam, 6point NFL teaser on 213, 218 and 224 for $100."
The bettor may choose to get 6, 6.5 or 7 extra points on each leg of the teaser. Naturally, the more points the bettor takes, the less he stands to win. Winning odds vary from place to place, so please refer to my pay tables for whom pays the best odds. However, for the lazy readers out there, Jerry's Nugget has the best OTB teaser odds for most the number of legs and points.
Following is my individual analysis of 6point, 6.5point, and 7point teasers.6Point Off the Board Teasers
The following table shows what 6point OTB teaser bets pay, according to the number of picks and the sports book group. Wins in this table are on a "to one" basis. In other words, the original wager is returned if the bet wins.
6Point off the Board Teasers — Pay Table
Sportsbook  Legs  

2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  
Boyd  10 to 13  8 to 5  5 to 2  9 to 2  7 to 1  9 to 1  10 to 1  
Caesars  5 to 6  7 to 5  5 to 2  4 to 1  6 to 1  
CG Technology  5 to 6  8 to 5  14 to 5  9 to 2  7 to 1  
Golden Nugget  8 to 5  5 to 2  9 to 2  7 to 1  9 to 1  10 to 1  
Jerry's Nugget  4 to 5  8 to 5  5 to 2  9 to 2  7 to 1  8 to 1  10 to 1  
MGM  10 to 13  8 to 5  5 to 2  4 to 1  6 to 1  10 to 1  15 to 1  
South Point  5 to 6  8 to 5  5 to 2  9 to 2  7 to 1  9 to 1  12 to 1  
Stations  5 to 6  8 to 5  5 to 2  9 to 2  7 to 1  8 to 1  10 to 1  
Stratosphere  5 to 6  8 to 5  5 to 2  9 to 2  13 to 2  9 to 1  11 to 1  
Treasure Island  5 to 6  7 to 5  5 to 2  4 to 1  6 to 1  
Westgate  10 to 13  8 to 5  5 to 2  4 to 1  6 to 1  
William Hill  20 to 23  8 to 5  13 to 5  4 to 1  6 to 1  8 to 1  10 to 1  15 to 1  20 to 1 
Wynn  5 to 6  8 to 5  14 to 5  9 to 2  6 to 1 
The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for a random picker against the best available 6point teaser odds. Note the house edge ranges from 10% to 52%.
6Point OTB Teaser — Random Picker
Legs  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

2  20 to 23  0.469264  0.122679 
3  1.8  0.321460  0.099913 
4  3  0.220209  0.119163 
5  4.5  0.150850  0.170327 
6  7  0.103336  0.173309 
7  10  0.070788  0.221328 
8  15  0.048492  0.224127 
9  15  0.033218  0.468504 
10  20  0.022756  0.522132 
It is possible to significantly move the odds in the player's favor by not picking random sides, but by crossing common margins of victory. The following table shows the ten most common winning margins in the NFL.
Top Margin of Victories in the NFL
Rank  Margin of Victory  Frequency 

1  3  15.7% 
2  7  9.3% 
3  10  6.2% 
4  6  5.4% 
5  4  5.0% 
6  14  4.8% 
7  1  4.0% 
8  17  3.6% 
9  2  3.5% 
10  5  3.2% 
Note how 25% of games end in a margin of victory of 3 or 7. By buying points that cross both these numbers, the player increases the probability of winning substantially. The only spreads that cross both numbers when teased with 6 points are 8.5, 8, 7.5, 1.5, 2 and 2.5. On average, 20% of games in the NFL have one side with one of these point spreads. Teasers on these point spreads are known as Wong Teasers, because Stanford Wong's book, , showed how to beat them.
The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for a Wong picker against the best available 6point teaser odds.
6Point OTB Teaser — Wong Bettor
Legs  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

2  20 to 23  0.536192  0.002446 
3  1.8  0.392628  0.099357 
4  3  0.287502  0.150009 
5  4.5  0.210524  0.157881 
6  7  0.154156  0.233252 
7  10  0.112881  0.241694 
8  15  0.082657  0.322520 
9  15  0.060526  0.031583 
10  20  0.044320  0.069273 
Note the player advantages up to 32% on the pick8. Unfortunately, most weeks don't have that many opportunities. As mentioned, 20% of games have a Wong side, so in a 16game week, you can expect 3.2 Wongable games only.
Sadly, the liberal odds of 110 for a 2leg, +180 for a 3leg, and +300 for a 4leg 6point NFL teaser seem to have gone the way of the dodo bird with the 2014 season. The last holdout Jerry's Nugget depressed their odds with the 2014 season.
Note that 2004 was the worst year for Wong teasers in the sample period, and note what year I bet the ticket above at the Suncoast.
6.5Point Off the Board Teasers
The following table shows what 6.5point OTB teaser bets pay according to the number of picks and the sports book group. Wins in this table are on a "to one" basis. In other words, the original wager is returned if the bet wins.
6.5Point off the Board Teasers — Pay Table
Sportsbook  Legs  

2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  
Boyd  10 to 14  7 to 5  12 to 5  4 to 1  6 to 1  8 to 1  9 to 1  
Caesars  10 to 13  6 to 5  2 to 1  7 to 2  5 to 1  
CG Technology  10 to 13  3 to 2  5 to 2  4 to 1  11 to 2  
Golden Nugget  7 to 5  2 to 1  4 to 1  6 to 1  8 to 1  9 to 1  
Jerry's Nugget  10 to 13  7 to 5  2 to 1  7 to 2  5 to 1  6 to 1  9 to 1  
MGM  10 to 14  7 to 5  2 to 1  7 to 2  5 to 1  9 to 1  12 to 1  
South Point  10 to 13  7 to 5  12 to 5  4 to 1  6 to 1  8 to 1  10 to 1  
Stations  10 to 13  3 to 2  2 to 1  4 to 1  6 to 1  7 to 1  9 to 1  
Stratosphere  10 to 13  7 to 5  11 to 5  4 to 1  11 to 2  8 to 1  9 to 1  
Treasure Island  10 to 13  6 to 5  2 to 1  7 to 2  5 to 1  
Westgate  10 to 14  3 to 2  2 to 1  5 to 2  5 to 1  
William Hill  4 to 5  29 to 20  11 to 5  7 to 2  5 to 1  7 to 1  9 to 1  12 to 1  15 to 1 
Wynn  10 to 13  3 to 2  5 to 2  4 to 1  11 to 2 
The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for a random picker against the best available 6.5point teaser odds. Note the house edge ranges from 10% to 54%.
6.5Point OTB Teaser — Random Picker
Legs  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

2  0.8  49.13%  11.57% 
3  1.6  34.44%  10.47% 
4  2.5  24.14%  15.52% 
5  4  16.92%  15.41% 
6  6  11.86%  16.99% 
7  9  8.31%  16.88% 
8  12  5.83%  24.26% 
9  12  4.08%  46.92% 
10  15  2.86%  54.21% 
While Wong teasers have always referred to buying six points, it is possible to do them with a 6.5 point teaser. In this case, the qualifying point spreads would be 9 to 7.5 and 1 to 2.5. Under this criteria, 74.14% of 6.5point Wong teasers legs win. The following table shows how well they do against the best available odds for a 6.5point teaser.
6.5Point OTB Teaser — Wong Picker
Legs  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

2  0.8  54.96%  1.06% 
3  1.6  40.75%  5.95% 
4  2.5  30.21%  5.74% 
5  4  22.40%  11.99% 
6  6  16.61%  16.24% 
7  9  12.31%  23.11% 
8  12  9.13%  18.65% 
9  12  6.77%  12.04% 
10  15  5.02%  19.74% 
While the above table shows some strong player advantages, up to 23%, the odds are not as good as for the 6point Wong teaser.
7Point Off the Board Teasers
The following table shows what 7point OTB teaser bets pay according to the number of picks and the sports book group. Wins in this table are on a "to one" basis. In other words, the original wager is returned if the bet wins.
7Point off the Board Teasers — Pay Table
Sportsbook  Legs  

2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  
Boyd  2 to 3  6 to 5  2 to 1  7 to 2  5 to 1  7 to 1  8 to 1  
CG Technology  10 to 14  7 to 5  2 to 1  3 to 1  5 to 1  
Golden Nugget  6 to 5  9 to 5  7 to 2  5 to 1  7 to 1  8 to 1  
Harrah's  10 to 14  1 to 1  9 to 5  3 to 1  4 to 1  
Jerry's Nugget  10 to 14  6 to 5  8 to 5  3 to 1  4 to 1  6 to 1  8 to 1  
MGM  2 to 3  6 to 5  9 to 5  3 to 1  4 to 1  7 to 1  10 to 1  
South Point  10 to 14  6 to 5  2 to 1  7 to 2  5 to 1  13 to 2  9 to 1  
Stations  10 to 14  6 to 5  9 to 5  7 to 2  5 to 1  6 to 1  8 to 1  
Stratosphere  10 to 14  6 to 5  2 to 1  3 to 1  5 to 1  7 to 1  8 to 1  
Treasure Island  10 to 14  1 to 1  9 to 5  3 to 1  4 to 1  
Westgate  2 to 3  6 to 5  9 to 5  3 to 1  9 to 2  
William Hill  10 to 14  13 to 10  2 to 1  3 to 1  9 to 2  6 to 1  8 to 1  10 to 1  12 to 1 
Wynn  10 to 14  6 to 5  9 to 5  3 to 1  5 to 1 
The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for a random picker against the best available 7point teaser odds. Note the house edge ranges from 12% to 54%.
7Point OTB Teaser — Random Picker
Legs  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

2  5 to 7  51.35%  11.97% 
3  1.4  36.80%  11.69% 
4  2  26.37%  20.90% 
5  3.5  18.90%  14.97% 
6  5  13.54%  18.76% 
7  7  9.70%  22.38% 
8  10  6.95%  23.52% 
9  10  4.98%  45.20% 
10  12  3.57%  53.59% 
Since I looked at Wong teasers for 6 and 6.5 points, I may as well do it for 7. There the qualifying range on the point spread would be 9.5 to 7.5 or 1 to 2.5. Although there could be, there is never a points spread of 0.5 or 0.5 in the NFL. The probability of each leg winning is 74.61%. The following table shows the expected return for 7point Wong teasers, based on the best available win for the chosen number of legs.
7Point OTB Teaser — Wong Picker
Legs  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

2  5 to 7  55.66%  4.58% 
3  1.4  41.53%  0.34% 
4  2  30.98%  7.05% 
5  3.5  23.11%  4.02% 
6  5  17.24%  3.47% 
7  7  12.87%  2.93% 
8  10  9.60%  5.59% 
9  10  7.16%  21.23% 
10  12  5.34%  30.54% 
While the above table shows some small advantages, they are significantly less than the large advantages under a 6point Wong teaser.
Teaser Cards
Let me start by explaining what a teaser card is. They are the same as a parlay card, except (1) each pick gets extra points on the spread, and (2) they pay much less. It is the same principle as off the board parlays, rather than teasers), except the player fills out a card as opposed to telling the writer each leg of the teaser. The point spreads on teaser cards are usually integers, with a ties win rule, which is worth another half point in the player's favor.
Another difference between betting on a teaser or parlay card, as opposed to off the board, is all card wins are on a "for one" basis and off the board wins are "to one." For those who don't understand the difference, if the player wins a "to win" bet, he also gets his original wager back, while on a "for one" bet, he does not.
There are a host of types of teasers, giving the player an extra 2.5 to 10 points on each leg. Of course, the more points the player gets, the less he will win. For this page, I specifically analyzed five types of teaser cards, giving the player 2.5, 5.5, 6.5, 8.5 and 9.5 points on each leg. My analysis shows that for a random picker, the probability of winning each leg is as follows.
Probability of Winning each Leg
Points  Probability 

2.5  58.25% 
5.5  66.43% 
6.5  69.92% 
8.5  74.98% 
9.5  77.02% 
Based on this table, and after doing some math, I developed a formula to estimate the probability of winning any given leg given p extra points, for a random picker.
Wizard Teaser Equation
Probability of covering spread with p extra points is estimated as e^{0.128×p}/ (1+e^{0.128×p}).
For those unfamiliar with the number , it is known as Euler's number, which equals 1/0! + 1/1! + 1/2! + 1/3! + ... = 2.718281828... It has all kinds of applications in mathematics, especially calculus. To name just four:
 c*e^{x}, where c is any nonzero constant, is the only function who derivative is itself.
 If x=integral from 1 to y of (1/t) dt, then e^{x} = y.
 $1 deposited in a bank account paying 100% interest, compounded infinitely, would have $e at the end of one year.
Getting back on topic, the following chart shows the actual probability of winning, according to the number of additional points, and the probability estimated by the Wizard Teaser Equation.
Let's look at an example. The William Hill "teaser card" is one of the few with spreads that always end in 1/2. One game had the following lines: Patriots 4.5, Bills +16.5. To get the extra points on each side, simply add the two spreads and divide by two. In this case (16.54.5)/2 = 6. So, I would call this a 6point teaser card. My formula suggests the probability of a random pick winning would be e^{0.128×6}/(1+e^{0.128×6}) = 68.31%.
Let's look at another. Caesars casinos have a "teaser card" in which every spread is an integer with a ties win rule. One game had spreads of Eagles 2, Chargers +14. Again, add the spreads and divide by 2: (142)/2 = 6. However, the ties win rule is like getting an extra half point on the spread. So, I would call this a 6.5point teaser card. My formula suggests that the probability of a random pick winning would be e^{0.128×6.5}/ (1+e^{0.128×6.5}) = 69.68%. This is 0.24% less than the exact analysis I did suggests, which goes to show you that estimates are just that, estimates.
The following table shows the probability of any given leg winning, given 0 to 10 extra points, according to the Wizard Teaser Equation.
Wizard Teaser Equation
Points  Probability of Winning 

0  50.00% 
0.5  51.60% 
1  53.19% 
1.5  54.78% 
2  56.36% 
2.5  57.93% 
3  59.48% 
3.5  61.01% 
4  62.52% 
4.5  64.00% 
5  65.46% 
5.5  66.90% 
6  68.30% 
6.5  69.66% 
7  71.00% 
7.5  72.30% 
8  73.56% 
8.5  74.78% 
9  75.97% 
9.5  77.12% 
10  78.23% 
Following is my analysis of several types of teaser cards found in Las Vegas, from the least number of points to the most.
2.5Point Teaser Card
The 2.5point teaser card is available at MGM casinos only. All end in a 1/2, thus there can be no ties. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for 4 to 15 picks, assuming a random picker. According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the probability of winning each leg is 57.93%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 32% to 81%.
2.5Point MGM Teaser Card — Random Picker
Pick  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

4  6  0.112656  0.324062 
5  9.5  0.065267  0.379962 
6  15  0.037812  0.432815 
7  21  0.021906  0.539964 
8  32.5  0.012691  0.587528 
9  50  0.007353  0.632362 
10  80  0.004260  0.659216 
11  125  0.002468  0.691512 
12  187.5  0.001430  0.731918 
13  300  0.000828  0.751500 
14  450  0.000480  0.784048 
15  700  0.000278  0.805383 
The smart gambler could cut down these house advantages by playing situations where he gets more than 2.5 points only and/or crosses the 3 or 7point margin of victory. However, the randompicker house edges are so high that I think these tricks would seldom get the bettor out of the hole.
3Point Teaser Card
The 3point teaser card is available only at the Stratosphere family of casinos. All spreads end in a 1/2, so there can be no ties. The following table shows that the probability of winning and expected return for 3 to 15 picks, assuming a random picker. According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the probability of winning each leg is 59.49%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 25% to 83%.
3Point Stratosphere Teaser Card — Random Picker
Pick  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

3  3.5  0.210501  0.263246 
4  6  0.125220  0.248682 
5  9  0.074489  0.329601 
6  15  0.044311  0.335339 
7  20  0.026359  0.472822 
8  30  0.015680  0.529601 
9  50  0.009327  0.533627 
10  75  0.005549  0.583857 
11  100  0.003301  0.669935 
12  150  0.001963  0.705484 
13  200  0.001168  0.766404 
14  300  0.000695  0.791563 
15  400  0.000413  0.834677 
As with any teaser card, the house edge can be cut significantly by getting more than the average number of points and/or crossing through key margins of victory. However, there are other kinds of teaser cards where the player doesn't start so deeply in the hole.
3.5Point Teaser Card
The 3.5point teaser card is available at Jerry's Nugget only. All spreads end in a 1/2, so there can be no ties. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for 4 to 15 picks, assuming a random picker. According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the probability of winning each leg is 61.02%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 17% to 68%.
3.5Point Jerry's Nugget Teaser Card — Random Picker
Pick  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

4  6  0.138635  0.168187 
5  9  0.084595  0.238648 
6  13  0.051619  0.328950 
7  17  0.031498  0.464538 
8  25  0.019220  0.519505 
9  41  0.011728  0.519159 
10  61  0.007156  0.563468 
11  100  0.004367  0.563329 
12  150  0.002665  0.600318 
13  250  0.001626  0.593527 
14  325  0.000992  0.677564 
15  600  0.000605  0.636772 
Again, these house edges can be cut by looking for games with more than 3.5 points and/or cut through the 3 or 7point margin of victory. However, I think that strategy is better done off of the 6.5point teaser card.
5Point Teaser Card
I've seen three types of 5point teaser cards, as follows:
 Golden Nugget, Jerry's Nugget: Point spreads always end in 1/2. For example, Titans +1.5 & Chargers +8.5. Number of points = (1.5+8.5)/2=5.
 : Point spreads are always integers and ties win. For example, Eagles 4 & Chargers +13. Remember, the ties win rule is worth half a point on each side. Number of points = (4+13)/2 + 0.5 = 5.
The following table shows what each group pays on 5point teasers.
5Point Teaser Card — Pay Table
Sportsbook  Legs  

3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  
Golden Nugget  2.6  4  5  8  11  16  22  30  45  65  100  150  250 
Jerry's Nugget  4  6  8  12  16  25  35  50  70  100  150  300  
Westgate  2.5  3.5  5.5  8  11  15  20  30  40  65  100  150  250 
Jerry's Nugget offers the best odds of the three, so I'll limit my analysis of the 5point teaser to just their card. According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the probability of winning each leg is 65.48%. The table shows the house edge for a random picker ranges from 26% to 60%.
5Point Teaser Card — Jerry's Nugget — Random Picker
Pick  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

4  4  0.183833  0.264667 
5  6  0.120373  0.277761 
6  8  0.078820  0.369441 
7  12  0.051611  0.380669 
8  16  0.033795  0.459286 
9  25  0.022129  0.446785 
10  35  0.014490  0.492860 
11  50  0.009488  0.525610 
12  70  0.006213  0.565120 
13  100  0.004068  0.593203 
14  150  0.002664  0.600446 
15  300  0.001744  0.476748 
5.5Point Teaser Card
This is a common type of teaser card that I've seen at five different sports book families. They call them different things, with different rules, as follows:
 Wynn — 1/2 Point Teaser Card: All point spreads end in a half and the distance between the two spreads is always 11, or 5.5 points per team.
 South Point — Big Teaser Special: All point spreads are integers, ties lose, and the distance between the spreads is always 12. On integer spreads, a ties lose rule costs the player a half point. So, the average number of points each spread moves is 12/2  0.5 = 5.5.
 Boyd, Stations, Ties Win Teaser: All point spreads are integers, ties win, and the distance between the spreads is always 10. On integer spreads, a ties lose rule benefits the player a half point. So, the average number of points each spread moves is 10/2 + 0.5 = 5.5.
The following table shows what each family of sports books pays on the 5.5point teaser.
5.5Point Teaser Card — Pay Table
Sportsbook  Legs  

3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  
Boyd  2.5  3.5  5  8  10  15  20  30  40  60  100  150  300 
South Point  2.5  4  6  8  10  15  20  30  45  75  125  175  350 
Stations  2.5  3.5  5  8  10  15  20  30  40  60  100  150  300 
Stratosphere  2.5  3.5  5  8  10  15  20  30  45  65  100  150  250 
Treasure Island  2.75  4  6  8  12  16  20  30  40  65  95  150  240 
Wynn  2.5  3.5  5  7  11  15  20  30  45  60  90  125  200 
According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the average picker can expect to win 66.91% of selections made. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return against the best pay tables for the random picker. The house edge varies from 15% to 46%.
5.5Point Teaser Card — Random Picker
Pick  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

3  2.75  0.299579  0.176157 
4  4  0.200454  0.198183 
5  6  0.134128  0.195232 
6  8  0.089748  0.282018 
7  12  0.060052  0.279376 
8  16  0.040182  0.357089 
9  20  0.026887  0.462269 
10  30  0.017990  0.460290 
11  45  0.012038  0.458305 
12  75  0.008055  0.395901 
13  125  0.005390  0.326309 
14  175  0.003606  0.368908 
15  350  0.002413  0.155448 
The player can cut down the house edge by looking for situations where the line moved at least six points in the player's favor. About half of games will have such opportunities. For example, if the card maker does a halfpoint card, where every spread ends in a half, then if the original point spread ends in a half, he will have to move one side six points, and the other five. By picking only 6point sides, the probability of success of each pick increases from 66.91% to an estimated 68.31%. The following table shows the expected return when the player picks only sides that move six points in his favor. The return ranges from a player edge of 15% to a house edge of 35%.
5.5Point Teaser Card — 6Point Picker
Pick  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

3  2.75  0.318804  0.123290 
4  4  0.217787  0.128854 
5  6  0.148778  0.107332 
6  8  0.101636  0.186914 
7  12  0.069431  0.166826 
8  16  0.047431  0.241104 
9  20  0.032402  0.351963 
10  30  0.022135  0.335953 
11  45  0.015121  0.319547 
12  75  0.010330  0.225263 
13  125  0.007057  0.117914 
14  175  0.004821  0.156380 
15  350  0.003293  0.152615 
Comparing the above two tables, we see the decrease in house edge range from 5% for a 3leg teaser to 31% for 15 legs. Unfortunately, the only advantage we see is for a 15leg teaser. It would be almost impossible to see 15 6point opportunities in one week in the NFL.
6Point Teaser Card
Two groups offer 6point teasers: William Hill and MGM. As the following table shows, William Hill offers equal or better odds than MGM at every number of picks, including a wider range from 3 to 20.
6Point Teaser Card — Pay Table
Pick  William Hill  MGM 

3  2.6  
4  4  3 
5  5  4.5 
6  8  6.5 
7  11  10 
8  16  15 
9  22  20 
10  30  30 
11  45  45 
12  65  60 
13  100  90 
14  150  125 
15  200  200 
16  300  
17  500  
18  700  
19  1000  
20  1500 
The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for 3 to 20 picks, assuming the William Hill pay table and a random picker. According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the probability of winning each leg is 68.31%. The right column shows the house edge ranges from 17% to 34%.
6Point Teaser Card — William Hill — Random Picker
Pick  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

3  3  0.318804  0.171111 
4  4  0.217787  0.128854 
5  5  0.148778  0.256110 
6  8  0.101636  0.186914 
7  11  0.069431  0.236257 
8  16  0.047431  0.241104 
9  22  0.032402  0.287159 
10  30  0.022135  0.335953 
11  45  0.015121  0.319547 
12  65  0.010330  0.328561 
13  100  0.007057  0.294331 
14  150  0.004821  0.276898 
15  200  0.003293  0.341363 
16  300  0.002250  0.325091 
17  500  0.001537  0.231574 
18  700  0.001050  0.265084 
19  1,000  0.000717  0.282788 
20  1,500  0.000490  0.265069 
6.5Point Teaser Card
The 6.5point teaser card is offered by Caesars properties only. Point spreads are always integers and ties win. Remember that the "ties win" rule is worth half a point. For example, one game had lines of Eagles 2 and Chargers +14. The number of points is worth (2+14)/2 + 0.5 = 6.5
Compared to most, if not all, teaser cards, the odds are pretty generous. Based on the Wizard Teaser Equation, a random picker can expect each leg to win with a probability of 69.68%. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return for a 4leg to 15leg teaser. The house edge varies from 11% to 25%.
6.5Point Teaser Card — Caesars — Random Picker
Pick  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

4  3.5  0.235779  0.174773 
5  5  0.164298  0.178511 
6  7  0.114488  0.198587 
7  10  0.079778  0.202217 
8  15  0.055592  0.166122 
9  20  0.038738  0.225239 
10  30  0.026994  0.190186 
11  40  0.018810  0.247597 
12  60  0.013107  0.213556 
13  90  0.009134  0.177974 
14  130  0.006365  0.172605 
15  200  0.004435  0.112996 
These house edges are low enough to examine how the odds would change if the player only made these picks when he got 7 points. If the off the board (OTB) point spread ended in a half, then the card maker would have to move one side 5.5 and one side 6.5 points to make both spreads integers. Then, add another half point for the ties win rule, and you sometimes get to 7 points.
If the player chooses selections with an extra 7 points, compared to the OTB spread, then he can increase the win rate per leg from 69.68% for a random picker to an estimated 71.02%. This changes the return table as follows.
6.5Point Teaser Card — Caesars — Extra Half Point Picker
Pick  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

4  3.5  0.254376  0.109684 
5  5  0.180653  0.096735 
6  7  0.128296  0.101926 
7  10  0.091114  0.088864 
8  15  0.064707  0.029393 
9  20  0.045954  0.080924 
10  30  0.032636  0.020935 
11  40  0.023177  0.072915 
12  60  0.016460  0.012403 
13  90  0.011690  0.052059 
14  130  0.008302  0.079220 
15  200  0.005896  0.179140 
The good news is that according to the above table, the extra half point picker will have an 18% advantage with a 15leg card. The bad news is that only about half of games will have such an opportunity. With at most 16 NFL games in a week, the odds are nearly impossible to have this many opportunities. Still, this shows the value of searching out extra half points. The player can cut down the house edge further by taking advantage of late line movements and/or crossing the key margin of victories of 3 and 7.
8Point Ties Win Teaser Card
The Westgate is the only sports book to offer an 8point teaser. The following table shows the odds.
8Point Teaser Card — Westgate — Pay Table
Legs  

4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15 
2  2.5  3.5  4.5  6  7.5  9.5  6  7.5  10  12.5  15 
The random picker can expect to win 73.58% of picks. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return against the Westgate pay table for the random picker. The house edge varies from 41% to 85%.
8Point Teaser Card — Random Picker
Pick  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

4  2  0.293131  0.413738 
5  2.5  0.215688  0.460779 
6  3.5  0.158706  0.444530 
7  4.5  0.116777  0.474503 
8  6  0.085926  0.484446 
9  7.5  0.063225  0.525813 
10  9.5  0.046522  0.558046 
11  6  0.034231  0.794614 
12  7.5  0.025187  0.811094 
13  10  0.018533  0.814668 
14  12.5  0.013637  0.829539 
15  15  0.010034  0.849488 
8.5Point Ties Win Teaser Card
These are cards where the two point spreads on a given game are 16 points apart, always are integers, and ties win. The ties win rule is worth half a point, so the value per side is 16/2 + 0.5 = 8.5 points. Here is what the sports books call them.
 Caesars — "Ties Win" Super Teaser Card
 MGM — Ties Win Super Teaser
 Stratosphere — Super Teaser Card
 Stations — Mega Teaser Special
The following table shows what the four sports book families that offer these pay. As you can see, there is a three way tie for first, with Stations offering inferior odds to everybody else.
8.5Point Teaser Card — Pay Table
Sportsbook  Legs  

4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  
Caesars  2  2.5  3.5  4.5  6  7.5  9.5  12  15  20  25  30 
MGM  2  2.5  3.5  4.5  6  7.5  9.5  12  15  20  25  30 
Stations  2  2.5  3.5  4  5.5  7  9  30  
Stratosphere  2  2.5  3.5  4.5  6  7.5  9.5  12  15  20  25  30 
According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the random picker can expect to win 74.81% of picks. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return against the best pay tables for the random picker. The house edge varies from 37% to 60%.
8.5Point Teaser Card — Random Picker
Pick  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

4  2  0.316065  0.367869 
5  2.5  0.236985  0.407537 
6  3.5  0.177691  0.378081 
7  4.5  0.133232  0.400454 
8  6  0.099897  0.400616 
9  7.5  0.074903  0.438229 
10  9.5  0.056162  0.466461 
11  12  0.042110  0.494678 
12  15  0.031574  0.526388 
13  20  0.023674  0.526516 
14  25  0.017751  0.556228 
15  30  0.013310  0.600713 
9Point Ties Win Teaser Card
Two sports books offer 9point teasers, Boyd Gaming and the Golden Nugget.
9Point Teaser Card — Pay Table
Sportsbook  Legs  

4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  
Boyd  2  2.5  3.5  4.5  6  7.5  9.5  12  15  20  25  30 
Golden Nugget  2.2  2.6  3.5  4.5  5.5  7  9  11  14  18  23  30 
According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the random picker can expect to win 75.99% of picks. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return against the higher win between Boyd and the Golden Nugget for the random picker. The house edge varies from 27% to 51%.
9Point Teaser Card — Random Picker
Pick  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

4  2.2  0.333112  0.267153 
5  2.6  0.253069  0.342022 
6  3.5  0.192259  0.327095 
7  4.5  0.146061  0.342727 
8  6  0.110964  0.334217 
9  7.5  0.084300  0.367748 
10  9.5  0.064044  0.391585 
11  12  0.048655  0.416144 
12  15  0.036963  0.445549 
13  20  0.028081  0.438371 
14  25  0.021334  0.466656 
15  30  0.016207  0.513776 
9.5Point Ties Win Teaser Card
Two sports books offer 9.5point teasers, the Treasure Island and Westgate. Their pay tables are as follows. As you can see, the Treasure Island offers consistently better odds.
9.5Point Teaser Card — Pay Table
Sportsbook  Legs  

4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  
Treasure Island  2  2.5  3.5  4  5.5  7  9  11.5  14.5  18.5  23.5  30 
Westgate  2.25  3  3.5  4.5  6  7.5  9  11  13  16  20 
According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the random picker can expect to win 77.14% of picks. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return against the Treasure Island pay table for the random picker. The house edge varies from 26% to 38%.
9.5Point Teaser Card — Treasure Island — Random Picker
Pick  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

4  2  0.354134  0.291732 
5  2.5  0.273187  0.317033 
6  3.5  0.210742  0.262402 
7  4  0.162571  0.349715 
8  5.5  0.125411  0.310240 
9  7  0.096745  0.322787 
10  9  0.074631  0.328321 
11  11.5  0.057572  0.337922 
12  14.5  0.044412  0.356022 
13  18.5  0.034261  0.366179 
14  23.5  0.026429  0.378910 
15  30  0.020388  0.388354 
10Point Ties Win Teaser Card
Only William Hill offers a 10point teaser. According to the Wizard Teaser Equation, the random picker can expect to win 78.25% of picks. The following table shows the probability of winning and expected return against the William Hill odds for the random picker. The house edge varies from 18% to 29%.
9.5Point Teaser Card — Treasure Island — Random Picker
Pick  Pays  Prob. Win  Exp. Value 

4  2.2  0.374945  0.175120 
5  2.6  0.293400  0.237160 
6  3.5  0.229589  0.196437 
7  4.5  0.179657  0.191544 
8  5.5  0.140584  0.226788 
9  7  0.110009  0.229938 
10  9  0.086083  0.225249 
11  11  0.067362  0.259023 
12  14  0.052711  0.262042 
13  18  0.041247  0.257548 
14  24  0.032277  0.225362 
15  30  0.025257  0.242294 
16  38  0.019764  0.248973 
17  48  0.015465  0.257656 
18  64  0.012102  0.225475 
19  75  0.009470  0.289754 
20  100  0.007410  0.258963 
Summary
For the random picker, teasers are absolutely a sucker bet with an enormous house edge. If you must bet them, the house edge is less betting off the board, but still high. Here is some advice on how to decrease the house edge on teasers.
 Bet at the sports books that pay the best odds.
 Try to cross as many key margin of victories as you can, especially 3 and 7.
 Get as many points as you can between the spread on the card and off the board (this advice applies to cards only).
If you must bet teasers, then the best method is known as the Wong teaser. This is an off the board teaser off certain spreads that cross the 3 and 7point margins of victory.
If you must bet teaser cards, the best overall odds can be found on the Caesars 6.5point card.
Internal Links
 Parlay Bets in the NFL
 Pleaser Bets in the NFL
 Betting the NFL
 Las Vegas Sports Book Groups
 Miscellaneous topics in betting the NFL
External Links
 — What each sports book family pays on parlays and teasers.
Written by: Michael Shackleford